Oscar Predictions, 2015

82nd Annual Academy Awards - "Meet The Oscars" New York

Starting a week from today, the Oscar race is officially on.  Because on Monday, December 29, 2014, at 8:00 a.m. PST, active members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will vote for the nominees in 24 different categories for this year’s ceremony.  I don’t think I’ve ever gotten so excited about the Oscars this early in the year–and in truth, the year hasn’t even started yet!

We won’t find out what the nominations are for another 17 days.  It’s just my luck that Oscartide always seems to coincide with midterms, so I’m definitely not going to hear the nominees announced live this year.  I could elaborate on this, but my tangents are like anyone’s: they’re not exactly necessary.

I’d really like to know what the nominees are, right now.  I’ve been following this year’s awards season far more than I ever would have followed it in previous years, and I’d like to think that I know what’ll be nominated.

So here are my predictions.  I could be spot-on, or I could be way off.  We won’t know until January 15th, but until then, feel free to let me know where you may agree or disagree with me on anything.  I’ve not only listed my predictions for the nominations in each category, but I’ve also ranked them in each category, with #1 being the most likely to garner a nomination (or so I think), and everything afterward being somewhat less likely.  I’ve also added some dark horses that might end up being nominated instead of one of my predictions.

And now, without further ado, I give you my list:

My Predictions

Best Picture

1. Boyhood

2. Birdman

3. Selma

4. The Imitation Game

5. Whiplash

6. Gone Girl

7. Mr. Turner

8. The Grand Budapest Hotel

9. The Theory of Everything

Dark horse: Nightcrawler

Long shots: Foxcatcher; A Most Violent Year; Unbroken

Best Director

1. Richard Linklater, Boyhood

2. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman

3. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

4. Ava DuVernay, Selma

5. David Fincher, Gone Girl

Dark horse: Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Long shot: Angelina Jolie, Unbroken

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel – screenplay by Wes Anderson; story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness

2. Boyhood – written by Richard Linklater

3. Birdman – screenplay by Alejandro González Iñárritu and Nicolás Giacobone and Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo

4. Nightcrawler – written by Dan Gilroy

5. The Lego Movie – screenplay by Phil Lord & Christopher Miller; story by Dan Hageman & Kevin Hageman and Phil Lord & Christopher Miller

Dark horse: A Most Violent Year – screenplay by J.C. Chandor

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Gone Girl – screenplay by Gillian Flynn; based on her novel

2. The Imitation Game – screenplay by Graham Moore; based on the book “Alan Turing: The Enigma” by Andrew Hodges

3. Wild – credited writer: Nick Hornby; based on the memoir “Wild: From Lost to Found on the Pacific Crest Trial” by Cheryl Strayed

4. Inherent Vice – screenplay by Paul Thomas Anderson; based on the novel by Thomas Pynchon

5. The Theory of Everything – screenplay by Anthony McCarten; based on the book “Travelling to Infinity: My Life with Stephen” by Jane Hawking

Dark horse: Unbroken – screenplay by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen and Richard LaGravenese and William Nicholson; based on the book by Laura Hillenbrand

Best Actor in a Leading Role

1. Michael Keaton, Birdman

2. David Oyelowo, Selma

3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

4. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler

Dark horses: Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Long shot: Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner

Best Actress in a Leading Role

1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice

2. Reese Witherspoon, Wild

3. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

4. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

5. Jennifer Aniston, Cake

Dark horses: Amy Adams, Big Eyes

Long shot: Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

1. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

2. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

3. Edward Norton, Birdman

4. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

5. Robert Duvall, The Judge

Dark horse: Tom Wilkinson, Selma

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

1. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

2. Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year

3. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

4. Emma Stone, Birdman

5. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Dark horse: Laura Dern, Wild

Best Documentary Feature

1. Citizenfour

2. Life Itself

3. Keep on Keepin’ on

4. Last Days in Vietnam

5. Jodorowsky’s Dune

Dark horse: Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me

Best Foreign Language Film**

1. Ida (Poland)

2. Leviathan (Russia)

3. Force Majeure (Sweden)

4. Wild Tales (Argentina)

5. Tangerines (Estonia)

Dark horse: Timbuktu (Mauritania)

**This section was edited after Two Days, One Night (previously #4) and Winter Sleep (previously a dark horse) became ineligible.

Best Animated Feature

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2

2. The Lego Movie

3. Big Hero 6

4. The Boxtrolls

5. The Book of Life

Dark horse: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

Long shot: Song of the Sea

Best Cinematography

Birdman

Interstellar

Mr. Turner

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Dark horse: Gone Girl

Long shot: Selma

Best Costume Design

Big Eyes

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Into the Woods

Maleficent

Mr. Turner

Dark horse: Inherent Vice

Long shot: Exodus: Gods and Kings

Best Film Editing

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

Unbroken

Whiplash

Dark horse: The Imitation Game

Long shots: Gone Girl; Selma

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Maleficent

Dark horse: The Theory of Everything

Best Original Score

Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Gone Girl

Alexandre Desplat, The Imitation Game

Hans Zimmer, Interstellar

Jóhann Jóhannsson, The Theory of Everything

Alexandre Desplat, Unbroken

Dark horse: John Powell, How to Train Your Dragon 2

Long shots: Steven Price, Fury; Thomas Newman, The Judge

Best Original Song

“Everything Is Awesome” (The Lego Movie)

“Glory” (Selma)

“Immortals” (Big Hero 6)

“Lost Stars” (Begin Again)

“Miracles” (Unbroken)

Dark horse: “Split the Difference” (Boyhood)

Long shot: “Big Eyes” (Big Eyes)

Best Production Design

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Into the Woods

Maleficent

Mr. Turner

Unbroken

Dark horse: Birdman

Long shot: Snowpiercer

Best Sound Editing

American Sniper

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Interstellar

Unbroken

Dark horse: Fury

Long shot: Into the Woods

Best Sound Mixing

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Interstellar

Into the Woods

Unbroken
Dark horse: Whiplash

Long shot: Transformers: Age of Extinction

Best Visual Effects

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Interstellar

Dark horse: Guardians of the Galaxy

Long shot: Transformers: Age of Extinction

What do you think of my predictions?  Have your say in the comments below.

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8 thoughts on “Oscar Predictions, 2015

  1. Few comments/suggestions/questions:
    1. Are the numbers in order of their likelihood to win? If so, Reese Witherspoon and Rosamund Pike will be 1 and 2, respectively. Reese Witherspoon will definitely win.
    2. “Wild” will surely be nominated for Best Cinematography, if not win. It was spectacular to watch.
    3. “Wild” will be nominated for Best Film and Best Director. This movie has a lot going for it.
    4. Laura Dern will be nominated over someone on that list, she was SO good in “Wild”.

    “Gone Girl” was fantastic and I’m sure it will win Best Adapted Screenplay. I think (disappointingly) “Boyhood” won’t win Best Original Screenplay. I saw it and it was incredible. Hopefully, I’ll see “Birdman” tomorrow.
    I don’t think “Unbroken” will be nominated for as many things as you say–it’s gotten mediocre reviews, unfortunately. It had so much potential!
    Now that I think about it, “Wild” and “Gone Girl” were very accurate to the book. If the Oscars are based on accuracy, “Wild” would win. It even got miniscule details from the movie and added them to the movie.

    • Apparently I didn’t even look at the precursor to the predictions…I sat on it, and I believe Reese Witherspoon will probably win. I’ll have to see “Still Alice” and make the predictions from there.
      My predictions come out next weekend. I’ve watched “Gone Girl”, “Wild”, and “Birdman” later today. At the end of each review, I write a little snippet on what awards the movies will be nominated for at the Oscars. Good predictions!

  2. I think Boyhood ought to take up most of the awards, especially for best picture and Best Director. But what about Interstellar and Fury? I think Interstellar should be nominated for Best director as well.
    I haven’t seen the rest of the films here.

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